Can Climate Models Predict Climate Change?|5 Minute Video

Predicting climate temperature levels isn’t science– it’s sci-fi. Emeritus Professor of Physics at Princeton University Will Happer describes.
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Script:

Let’s speak about environment designs.

Particularly, let’s discuss the environment designs that try to predict the future temperature of the planet. But before we do, it’s crucial that you understand a little about me.

I’m a physicist. I taught at Columbia University and after that at Princeton for 5 decades.

I have released over 200 peer-reviewed clinical documents. I have actually coauthored numerous books, including one of the very first on how carbon dioxide emissions– CO2– impacts the environment.

I served as the director of the Office of Energy Research at the US Department of Energy. And before that, I invented the “sodium guide star,” which is still used on most huge telescopes to measure and fix for atmospheric turbulence– that is, for the unforeseeable motion of air and water. This turbulence blurs the images of stars and other area objects.

Another thing: I care deeply about the environment. We live on a beautiful planet. I wish to keep it that method. I’ve spent a lot of time working to do just that.

Simply put, I understand a lot about the earth’s environment and climate. I likewise understand a lot about long-lasting predictive environment models.

And I understand they do not work. And it’s difficult to envision when, if ever, they’ll work in the foreseeable future.

There’s a common-sense factor for this.

Aside from the human brain, the environment is the most complex thing on the planet. The number of factors that affect environment– the sun, the earth’s orbital properties, oceans, clouds, and, yes, commercial man– is substantial and tremendously variable.

Let me attempt to narrow this down. For the functions of illustration, let’s just focus our attention on water.

The earth is basically a water planet. A significant element of environment involves the complicated interaction between 2 extremely rough fluids: the atmosphere, which holds big quantities of water (believe rain and snow), and the oceans, which cover fully 70% of the earth’s surface.

Due to the fact that we can’t forecast cloud formations, we can’t forecast what impact the atmosphere is going to have on future temperature levels.

And the convection of heat, oxygen, salt and other quantities that travel through the oceans, not to point out weather cycles like El Niño in the tropical Pacific, make forecasting ocean temperatures a similarly hard company. We can’t predict either side of the atmosphere/ocean equation.

However we can say this with certainty: Water– in all its phases– has big effects on atmospheric heating & cooling. Compared to water– H20, co2– CO2– is a minor factor to the warming of the earth.

It’s devilishly tough to anticipate what a fluid will do. Attempting to figure out what two fluids will do in interaction with each other on a planetary scale over long periods of time is close to difficult.

Anybody who followed the forecast of Hurricane Irma’s course in the late summertime of 2017 must understand this. First, the models forecasted a direct hit on Miami and the east coast of Florida. Defying these predictions, the cyclone unexpectedly drifted to the west coast of Florida. Simply put, even with huge amounts of real-time data, the models still could not precisely anticipate Irma’s path 2 days beforehand.

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source

Can Climate Models Predict Climate Change? Predicting climate temperature levels isn’t science– it’s science fiction. And before that, I invented the “sodium guide star,” which is still used on most big astronomical telescopes to remedy and determine for atmospheric turbulence– that is, for the unpredictable motion of air and water. The models forecasted a direct hit on Miami and the east coast of Florida. In other words, even with enormous amounts of real-time information, the designs still could not accurately forecast Irma’s course two days in advance.