The Failure of Expert Predictions and Models | The Coronavirus and Public Policy
This Hillsdale College online symposium session features remarks by journalist and author Alex Berenson, followed by an interview with John J. Miller, director of the College’s Dow Journalism Program. It considers the failure of expert predictions and models related to the coronavirus crisis. View other symposium sessions: https://symposium.hillsdale.edu.
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Time has a way of vindicating folks. Thank you Alex for your diligence.
Experts are failing us.
Big pharma set the agenda for the actions taken by hospital administrators. Doctors and nurses were forced to look the other way or risk losing their jobs. See Senator Ron Johnson's symposium which had medical whistle blowers telling how they had to watch people dying who were being treated with remdesivir.
Hillsdale, your commercials are always so compelling but your lectures have mostly been dull and rambling. This video is no exception and it lost me at 58 seconds due to so many filler words (as if the speaker just winged it without enough preparation.). I scrolled through the comments and was very encouraged to seek and understand. At the 6-minute marker, I’m still not satisfied that any compelling data was delivered. Frankly, there’s a bit too much ranting. I don’t hear facts and receipts to back up any claims. Maybe I’ve been spoiled by excellent podcasts from folks like Bret Weinstein, Ben Shapiro, Jordan Peterson, Robert Barnes, etc. If you want to a large following, your presenters need to deliver at the level the commercial video editors were able to piece together your ads; otherwise, I would encourage you to make your ads less compelling/exciting to match the tone and tenor of your presenters.
Issued by the time, quite fair! I see it in hindsight, which is easy.
This video is from early on in the pandemic and much has come out since this did. If some things I've heard are true it cast a very different light on things. For one, I heard hospitals were being paid for diagnosing covid and for hospitalizing patients and putting them on ventilators. Another thing I've heard is that numbers were being exaggerated which would make sense if there was an incentive to do so, Also it's coming out that damage to children due to lock downs is not quite known, but known to be considerable. A decline in learning and social skills, as well as children being traumatized from fear of dying, and gaining weight from a lack of activity. It's also known now that getting out of the house and getting some sun and being active is beneficial for humans. Yet we were told to shelter in place and not go out. So many things was wrong with how things were done to fight the virus, that in the end, the damages done to societies around the world will prove to be far greater than the virus itself. Maybe we will handle the next pandemic better from what we have learned from this one. This was by the way a very good and informative video. Well done.
To me, Alex is the new Charles Krauthammer. I hope he sues TW into oblivion!
Like Brexit. They gave visions of falling off cliffs. All these experts.
Great analysis..
And yet here we are with vaccine mandates for a virus most of us have already had. 🙄
COVID-19 is probably the greatest and most successful swindle in history. By comparison, Carlo Ponzi and Bernie Madoff were pikers. The COVID scam has affected most of earth’s 7.8 billion inhabitants, consumed trillions of dollars, and achieved a level of government control unprecedented in modern democracies.
The COVID “pandemic of fear” is a con, perpetrated by those in power to extend and expand their power. Their scheme is simple. Take a new flu-like respiratory virus created in China, COVID-19; tout it as a threat to all human life; suspend (temporarily, of course!) personal liberty and freedom; then justify their tyranny by asserting a need to protect all Americans from death by virus. When the threat recedes, redefine the terms, demand vaccine passports, and booster shots to maintain public fear. As new viral variants evolve such as Delta or Omicron, resume draconian measures including masks and lockdowns, more boosters, and loss of employment if unvaccinated. Make sure any evidence exposing the scam is labeled “misinformation.” Censor any reports that call into question the accuracy of official narratives. Punish those who question the government or refuse the mandates.
Is COVID a scam, or is it a real danger? What does the data show us?
Medical risk : Based on CDC data, the risk of death for children is less than 0.1 percent and for healthy adults less than 0.17 percent. COVID is dangerous only to a small segment of the population, the elderly, diabetics, and the infirm with serious pre-existing medical conditions such as immunocompromise, chronic lung disease, kidney or heart failure, often several of these illnesses in a single patient.
Since the true health risk could never justify the imposition of pseudo-martial law and taking away constitutionally guaranteed freedoms, Washington said COVID was an existential threat to all, like bubonic plague or Ebola.
To provoke public panic, Washington reported “COVID deaths” on a daily (sometimes hourly) basis, claiming a total COVID death toll of more than 790,000. This mortality data is distorted. Only 12 to 23 percent of the deaths were actually due to the virus, based on autopsy data and medical demographics respectively. The majority died primarily because of their pre-existing conditions. Anyone who died with a positive COVID test was classified by the CDC as a COVID death regardless of the real reason they died, viz., a fatal motorcycle crash.
Mask mandates : The Washington swamp mandated lockdowns, social distancing, and wearing face masks, as a demonstration of their power. It may seem reasonable that masks are protective, but medical data from Sweden, Israel, and U.S. schools suggest otherwise. They don’t protect. Worse, masks may actually be dangerous. A group of concerned Florida parents performed a study, which revealed that kids’ face masks contained dangerous pathogens that can cause pneumonia, Lyme disease, tuberculosis, and meningitis, among others. Mask efficacy and safety research was not done by Washington as it would have revealed their scam.
Effects of Washington policies : The touted benefit of Washington’s COVID mandates is saving lives. The cost of their mandates – lockdowns, PPE, social distancing, and coerced injections – is both staggering and ignored by the feds. Deaths due to social isolation are up, in the elderly as well as teenage suicides. So too are both crime and drug usage. Mental health has declined as have opportunities to learn for school-age children. Economic losses, particularly in small businesses, are massive. Would Americans have accepted such self-destruction if Washington had been truthful about COVID being merely a new flu, dangerous only to a small fraction of the population?
Immune protection : In those with intact immune systems, viral infection first induces protective antibodies and later T-cells and B-cells. Antibodies gradually fade months after the infection, but the T- and B- killer cells retain the memory of the viral signature and provide long-term protection. This is called natural immunity. When enough people have acquired such post-infection (natural) protection, herd immunity stops viral spread. A natural immune response occurs when the killer cells’ memory sees any one of the numerous viral protein “spikes.” Vaccination with mRNA gene therapy teaches the immune system to identify and respond to only one protein spike. Natural immunity is stronger and more protective than mRNA injection, even with boosters. The precise number of Americans with natural immunity is grossly underestimated because the true number of COVID infections is not known. For the first year of COVID, only symptomatic patients were tested. How many asymptomatic COVID “cases” were never identified? Almost certainly, tens of millions, The federal government minimizes the number of asymptomatic COVID infections because of natural immunity. Washington even denies natural immunity’s protective nature. Admitting this would reduce the fear factor.
Treatment : To maintain the COVID scam, Washington has to ignore, disparage, and even suppress information about treatments for COVID such as Hydroxychloroquine, Ivermectin, and monoclonal antibodies. Otherwise, there is no justification for imposing mandates.
THANK YOU ALEX BERENSON & HILLSDALE COLLEGE 🙏🇺🇸
… and make sure to watch today's talk at Hillsdale by Alex Berenson, as well – 2021 Oct 11 !!
YOU NEED A CHART…LISTENING IS TO PERPLEXING….🤔
On false positives: there is confusion about the distinction between the viral load test (PCR) and antibody test. I witnessed a discussion between an airline ticket agent and a potential (!) passenger about whether he should or should not be allowed on a plane in October 2020. The whole issue is confusing to the layperson. And I think this is by design. One other comment before I go: I’m disappointed that Alex did not mention natural immune system during this good video. That is one more factor that would confound the test results and by extension the models the ‘experts’ create to inform policy. Also, there is no clearly defined CT number for PCR. That means that the scientific method cannot be followed. Tests cannot be replicated if the test parameters are not even consistent. This is the problem with pseudoscience.
Wouldn’t it be weird if Fauci helped create this new thing either by funding or direct research? (He was involved with gain-of-function research…) In that case, someone would definitely know something about it. And isn’t telling us.
Democrats and the MSM used this to scare half the population and most of all get rid of Trump. It worked and that is the real disease.
Very easy to understand points out the flaws in modeling and listening only to the loudest voices.
They SHOULD HAVE LISTENED TO YOU!!!!BLUE STATE GOVERNORS like Wolf and Cuomo RUINED OUR COUNTRY¡!!¡!
So why do they continue to use lockdowns, social distancing and masks? Control of people for more nefarious reason? No flu or colds because people are wearing masks and are social distancing… but Covid is on the rise because no one is social distancing or wearing masks 🤦🏻♀️ Utterly ridiculous! The whole thing is a joke
Thank you Hillsdale, and thank you Alex.
Right now (coming into 2021) people are beating down the doors to get vaccinated in my town for a disease they claim has killed 5 people locally. That is the official count, and it comes with an asterisk next to it.
Mr. Berenson seems to be the only person on earth that is putting what is clearly visible into words while the remainder shove their heads into the virus infected echo chambers of the panic epidemic.
We need you out there!
Stalin: 1 death is tragedy, 1 million death is a statistics
This is reflected in this comment section after 200000 people dead, there is no compassion only conspiracy
BTW Your book on marijuana is just a novel on fear mongery. Smoke one and shut up.
Is it being suggested that all these is just Mathematical calculations and projections?
Excellent.
I am commenting here because you don't let me comment on the video;
"Alex Berenson | Marijuana, Mental Illness, and Violence"
I am impressed with most of your videos from Hillsdale College.
But This video is total nonsense.
Marijuana is NOT dangerous when cultivated Organically.
Whats dangerous is, some growers use chemicals, fertilizers and pesticides in the process of growing or extracting the THC.
This should be illegal.
The chemicals create the kinds of damage he is talking about.
For this reason I always smoke Organically grown Marijuana.
There are no negative effects.
Marijuana is NOT addictive.
I can quit any time and I have spent up to three mounts without using it several times.
No withdrawal symptoms.
However there are people who have addictive personalities.
They will get addicted to anything, so they should be careful.
It should not be used every day and all day.
If you do that with anything it will be dangerous.
Even water can kill you if you drink 7 liters of water every day for a few weeks you will die.
And of curse you will not find any studies on the beneficial effects of Marijuana because one will pay for it.
All the studies were created to prove marijuana is dangerous to justify putting millions of people in jail and support a privatized Prison system. How dangerous is that?
I could go on and on with this…….
Please stop the Bullshit about marijuana.
Pharmaceutical are way more dangerous then Marijuana.
Google deaths from pharmaceuticals per year
This makes prescription drugs a major health risk, ranking 4th with stroke as a leading cause of death. The European Commission estimates that adverse reactions from prescription drugs cause 200,000 deaths; so together, about 328,000 patients in the U.S. and Europe die from prescription drugs each year
If the real numbers don't meet the models then they fake it, right?
I think you were a bit too polite when you said Neil Ferguson is a well respected epidemiologist.
Thanks for your information and dialogue in explaining what all of the aware people already new when the lock down occurred. Now how does the truth/facts get released publicity from a reliable source? This looks like a China conspiracy between China and there conspirators (USA MEDIA and others that can/will benefit from this lock-down). We need to know who was behind this dis-information, very sad!
lets get back to work and let are immune system do its job